By Chris Cosci

This year, many New Yorkers altered their Memorial Day plans due to the weather forecast. Because the forecast called for rain, people cancelled their trips to the beach and broke out their raincoats and galoshes -- if anybody wears galoshes anymore. Then something predictably unexpected happened: it didn't rain.

Many people spent their Memorial Day simultaneously enjoying the beautiful spring sunshine and cursing the weatherman... or weatherwoman -- although that sounds like the world's most boring superhero; let's use weatherperson and keep all our bases covered. Anyway, this is not the first time that people have changed their plans due to the forecasts of weatherpersons... weatherpeople? Whatever.

I suppose most weatherfolk are technically called meteorologists. Whatever you call them, they have long been the ire of vacation-goers around the world. This recent missed prediction is just another part of a long history of inaccurate weather forecasts. We always like to blame these weatherhumans for making such bad predictions, but I think we need to blame ourselves. After all, how many times can we be misled before we learn not to schedule our lives around the weather forecast?

Hasn't anybody noticed that these forecasts are called predictions? They're not reports. They're not statements. They're basically elaborate guesses. In other words, weather forecasters are like psychics -- only without the crystal ball and tarot cards. Instead, they have complex satellite images and advanced computer technology to help them recognize patterns. While the weather may have patterns, those patterns are still unpredictable -- what some people call chaos theory.

Anybody who has seen or read Jurassic Park is probably familiar with the chaos theory: subtle changes cause a chain of events resulting in a large-scale transformation. For example, something as simple as the flap of a butterfly's wing could change the weather on the other side of the world. Next thing you know, people are running for their lives and being eaten by dinosaurs. The science is a little fuzzy, but you get the picture.

The point is that weather is not very predictable. The slightest change in wind speed or air pressure can have a substantial effect. If this happens often enough, it can severely damage a forecaster's credibility. Of course, it doesn't help when they try to provide five-day or even ten-day forecasts. They can't figure out what's going to happen in the next 24 hours, but they're willing to take a shot at next week. While they're at it, they might as well throw in some predictions for the lottery.

Regardless, the core of the problem still lies in the fact that we rely too heavily on these predictions. Year after year, we experience days when the weather is entirely different from what was forecasted. Still, we constantly return to these sources hoping that, maybe next time, they'll get it right. It's time to put an end to this dependence.

Maybe we can revert to some old-fashioned methods. There's always the old saying: "red sky at night, sailor's delight; red sky at morning, sailors take warning." Of course, this fails to account for other-colored skies, and apparently only applies to sailors. Then there's the belief that a ring around the moon foretells a storm. And there's something about animals fleeing the countryside before an earthquake. Maybe there are a few holes in these theories, but it's not much worse than what we have now.

Worst-case scenario, you can always rely on the most accurate weather forecaster -- your hand. Just stick it out the window and feel the weather. If your hand gets wet, it's raining. If your hand feels warm, it's probably sunny outside. If your hand gets gnawed off by ravenous squirrels -- then maybe you should consider checking out The Weather Channel.